The Cincinnati Open is heating up as we move into the fourth round. On Wednesday, Frances Tiafoe, Taylor Fritz, and Jannik Sinner will all be in action. Consequently, punters have multiple opportunities to find value. With the right picks, there is a realistic chance to turn knowledge into profit.
🔥 Frances Tiafoe vs Holger Rune
Best Bet: 1pt on Tiafoe to win @ 6/5 (Spreadex, Sporting Index)
Frances Tiafoe thrives on North American hardcourts. This week, he has beaten Roberto Carballes Baena and Ugo Humbert in straight sets. As a result, his confidence is high going into this clash.
However, Holger Rune presents a different challenge. While Rune has been solid so far, he has not defeated a top hardcourt player in months. Importantly, their last Cincinnati meeting went the distance, and Tiafoe prevailed in the deciding set. Moreover, Rune struggled badly in the humid conditions that day. Because similar weather is forecast, Tiafoe’s physical resilience should be a major advantage. Therefore, the American looks like a strong value pick as an underdog.
💥 Taylor Fritz vs Terence Atmane
Ace Watch: Atmane to serve 10+ aces @ 6/5
Terence Atmane’s serve is his biggest weapon. In fact, when these two met in Shanghai, he out-aced Fritz 14–6. Since then, Atmane has beaten Joao Fonseca and Flavio Cobolli this week. Although he has not reached double-digit aces in recent matches, the potential remains.
Fritz is a reliable returner. Nevertheless, his deeper return position can give big servers room to hit aces. On the quick Cincinnati surface, Atmane could benefit from that tendency. In addition, if the match extends beyond two sets, his ace count is likely to rise. Consequently, this market could hold value for those willing to take the risk.
🎯 Jannik Sinner vs Adrian Mannarino
Handicap Play: Mannarino +6.5 games @ 22/25
Adrian Mannarino has been in excellent form on fast courts. For example, this week he defeated Tomas Machac and Tommy Paul using his flat, aggressive groundstrokes. While Jannik Sinner is the top seed and clear favorite, his last match showed some vulnerability. Specifically, he dropped a tie-break to Gabriel Diallo, which suggests he can be pressured.
Moreover, Mannarino has covered this handicap in all three of their previous meetings. Although their last match was more than two years ago, his style continues to frustrate Sinner. If he maintains a high first-serve percentage, he could keep the score close. Therefore, the handicap play looks appealing.
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